Search results for "Inverse Gaussian distribution"
showing 10 items of 11 documents
Performance of adaptive sample size adjustment with respect to stopping criteria and time of interim analysis
2006
The benefit of adjusting the sample size in clinical trials on the basis of treatment effects observed in interim analysis has been the subject of several recent papers. Different conclusions were drawn about the usefulness of this approach for gaining power or saving sample size, because of differences in trial design and setting. We examined the benefit of sample size adjustment in relation to trial design parameters such as 'time of interim analysis' and 'choice of stopping criteria'. We compared the adaptive weighted inverse normal method with classical group sequential methods for the most common and for optimal stopping criteria in early, half-time and late interim analyses. We found …
A New Nonparametric Estimate of the Risk-Neutral Density with Applications to Variance Swaps
2021
We develop a new nonparametric approach for estimating the risk-neutral density of asset prices and reformulate its estimation into a double-constrained optimization problem. We evaluate our approach using the S\&P 500 market option prices from 1996 to 2015. A comprehensive cross-validation study shows that our approach outperforms the existing nonparametric quartic B-spline and cubic spline methods, as well as the parametric method based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution. As an application, we use the proposed density estimator to price long-term variance swaps, and the model-implied prices match reasonably well with those of the variance future downloaded from the CBOE websi…
Dynamic copula models for the spark spread
2011
We propose a non-symmetric copula to model the evolution of electricity and gas prices by a bivariate non-Gaussian autoregressive process. We identify the marginal dynamics as driven by normal inverse Gaussian processes, estimating them from a series of observed UK electricity and gas spot data. We estimate the copula by modeling the difference between the empirical copula and the independent copula. We then simulate the joint process and price options written on the spark spread. We find that option prices are significantly influenced by the copula and the marginal distributions, along with the seasonality of the underlying prices.
Modeling Term Structure Dynamics in the Nordic Electricity Swap Market
2010
We analyze the daily returns of Nordic electricity swaps and identify significant risk premia in the short end of the market. On average, long positions in this part of the swap market yield negative returns. The daily returns are distinctively non-normal in terms of tail-fatness, but we find little evidence of asymmetry. We investigate if the flexible four-parameter class of normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distributions can capture the observed stylized facts and find that this class of distributions offers a remarkably improved fit relative to the normal distribution. We also compare the fit with that of the four-parameter class of stable distributions; the NIG law outperforms the stable la…
A Comparison among Portfolio Selection Strategies with Subordinated Lévy Processes
2007
In this paper we describe portfolio selection models using Lévy processes. The contribution consists in comparing some portfolio selection strategies under different distributional assumptions. We first implement portfolio models under the hypothesis the log-returns follow a particular process with independent and stationary increments. Then we compare the ex-post final wealth of optimal portfolio selection models with subordinated Lévy processes when limited short sales and transaction costs are allowed.
Discrete Time Portfolio Selection with Lévy Processes
2007
This paper analyzes discrete time portfolio selection models with Lévy processes. We first implement portfolio models under the hypotheses the vector of log-returns follow or a multivariate Variance Gamma model or a Multivariate Normal Inverse Gaussian model or a Brownian Motion. In particular, we propose an ex-ante and an ex-post empirical comparisons by the point of view of different investors. Thus, we compare portfolio strategies considering different term structure scenarios and different distributional assumptions when unlimited short sales are allowed.
Quality of wind speed fitting distributions for the urban area of Palermo, Italy
2011
Abstract This study investigates the wind speed characteristics recorded in the urban area of Palermo, in the south of Italy, by a monitoring network composed by four weather stations. This article has two main objectives: the first one, to describe with clarity and simplicity the numerical procedures adopted to perform a preliminary statistical analysis of wind speed data, providing at the same time, the necessary mathematical tools useful to perform this analysis also without special software. The second objective is to verify if there are more suitable probability distributions able to better represent the original data respect the traditional ones. After a preliminary statistical analys…
Stochastic acceleration in generalized squared Bessel processes
2015
We analyze the time behavior of generalized squared Bessel processes, which are useful for modeling the relevant scales of stochastic acceleration problems. These nonstationary stochastic processes obey a Langevin equation with a non-Gaussian multiplicative noise. We obtain the long-time asymptotic behavior of the probability density function for non-Gaussian white and colored noise sources. We find that the functional form of the probability density functions is independent of the statistics of the noise source considered. Theoretical results are in good agreement with those obtained by numerical simulations of the Langevin equation with pulse noise sources.
Portfolio performance evaluation with generalized Sharpe ratios: Beyond the mean and variance
2009
The main purpose of this paper is to present a theoretically sound portfolio performance measure that takes into account higher moments of the distribution of returns. First, we perform a study of the investor's preferences to higher moments of distribution within expected utility theory and discuss the performance measurement. To illustrate the investor's preferences to higher moments and the computation of a performance measure, we provide an approximation analysis of the optimal capital allocation problem and derive a formula for the Sharpe ratio adjusted for skewness of distribution. This performance measure justifies the notion of the Generalized Sharpe Ratio (GSR) introduced by Hodges…
Stochastic dynamical modelling of spot freight rates
2014
Based on empirical analysis of the Capesize and Panamax indices, we propose different continuous-time stochastic processes to model their dynamics. The models go beyond the standard geometric Brownian motion, and incorporate observed effects like heavy-tailed returns, stochastic volatility and memory. In particular, we suggest stochastic dynamics based on exponential Levy processes with normal inverse Gaussian distributed logarithmic returns. The Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility model is shown to capture time-varying volatility in the data. Finally, continuous-time autoregressive processes provide a class of models sufficiently rich to incorporate short-term persistence …